Where we are: 5,741 TM tickets (4,417 consumer sales per Revenue Summary). $699K face value / $552K revenue w/ lift. 12.2% of capacity.
Where we need to be: 28,000 tickets (77% capacity) by May 28. That's 23,583 more tickets in 108 days.
Current pace: ~218 tickets/day needed to hit 77%. We're at ~49/day (341/wk from TM1 snapshots, 312/wk from TM Sales Trends).
What's working: Jon Pardi leading sales (1,849 / 42%). Miranda strong (1,744 / 39%). ATP up 9% vs 2025 ($125 vs $115). Steady velocity 312–341/wk (last 4 weeks). Dec 19 Evie secondary push added 1,491 tickets to TM inventory.
Concern: Charley Crockett at 824 tickets (19%) — still significantly lagging. Need marketing push to close Charley gap and sustain acceleration.
Key dates: Valentine's sale NOW, Spring Break sale Mar 8-15, 60-Day Countdown Apr 1, Final push May 14-21.
Hosted 60th ACMs, debuted "Trailblazer" with Miranda + Lainey. 2.6M streams first week (her biggest ever). Surprise reprise at MCR went viral.
Rodeo heritage: discovered at 1974 NFR singing national anthem.
JELLY ROLL: HOMETOWN HERO
Nashville native drove 43% of presale day 1. Goodnight Nashville = Official Bar. "No Nashville Until 2027" went viral on TikTok.
2026: Charley Crockett at 19% share (824 tix) - needs similar hometown energy. Only 5,190 visits vs 12,204 for Miranda.
TIM: CO-FOUNDER + KING RODEO
MCR co-founder via Down Home. Satellite radio tour. Top ad performer (21.8x ROAS). Released "King Rodeo" live track + video post-event.
Tim's night passed $1M gross. Announced 2026 lineup at Vegas.
WALK-UP FACTOR:24% of total sales (~8,400 tickets) came in final 6 days. Don't panic until Week 22-23.
Gap Analysis
Tickets Gap
~31,900
to sell out 2026 (36.3K capacity)
At Current Pace
~12,150
33% of capacity (w/ walk-up)
Need Velocity
2,065/week
to sell out 36.3K (vs 350 now)
Time Left
108 days
15.4 weeks to May 28
Sell-Through Targets: What It Takes to Hit 80% / 90% / 95% / 100%
Capacity: 36,300 (12,100/night × 3) |
Current: 4,417 sold (12.2%) |
Time left: 15.4 weeks (108 days) |
Current velocity: 350/wk
TARGET
TICKETS
STILL NEED
VELOCITY NEEDED
VS CURRENT
GROSS REV
NOW
4,417
—
350/wk
1.0x
$552K
Break-Even (~69%)
25,000
20,583
1,337/wk
3.0x
$3.13M
80%
29,040
24,623
1,599/wk
3.6x
$3.63M
90%
32,670
28,253
1,835/wk
4.1x
$4.08M
95%
34,485
30,068
1,953/wk
4.4x
$4.31M
100% SELLOUT
36,300
31,883
2,070/wk
4.7x
$4.54M
CURRENT TRAJECTORY (350/WK + 24% WALK-UP)
~12,150 tickets (33%)
~$1.52M gross revenue
TO REACH BREAK-EVEN (25K)
Need 3x current velocity
1,337/wk (191/day) for 15.4 weeks
Per night capacity: 12,100 seats |
Revenue assumes: $125.02 ATP (current blended) |
Walk-up not included in velocity targets — these are advance-sale rates needed
📊 Financial Projection (Based on v8 Budget)
V8 BUDGET SUMMARY
Budgeted Revenue (Sellout)
$10.18M
Total Expenses
$6.80M
Net at Sellout
-$332K
2025 Net Loss
-$1.46M
CURRENT PACE PROJECTION
Projected Tickets
~12,150 (33%)
Ticket Revenue
~$1.52M
Ticket Shortfall
-$2.78M
Projected 2026 Loss
-$3M to -$3.5M
⚠️ Key Insight: The v8 budget projects a -$609K loss even at 100% sellout (per rolling cash forecast). Most expenses are fixed (talent $1.40M, production $830K, venue $632K). At current 33% pace (~350/wk measured 1/22–2/9), the shortfall in ticket revenue (~$2.78M) drives projected losses to $3–3.5M. Break-even requires ~25,000 attendees (~1,000/wk = 2.9x current velocity).
The Problem: In 2025, Jelly Roll (Night 2) drove 43% of presale. Charley is at 19% — unchanged since Week 7. His conversion (2.74%) is similar but visits (5,190) are half of Miranda's (12,204).
SPECIFIC ACTIONS
1. Americana/Indie Channel Push
Charley's audience isn't mainstream country radio. Target: Americana podcasts, indie country playlists, Texas/roots music outlets. His 10-album catalog and "classic country revival" story resonates with different demos.
2. "Texas to Tennessee" Campaign
Charley is from Texas. Lean into Texas pride - partner with Texas country stations, rodeo communities. "Bring Texas to Nashville's Rodeo" messaging. Texas market was NOT in 2025 radio buy.
3. Venue Takeover / Nashville Residency
Jelly Roll had Goodnight Nashville as Official Bar. Find Charley's equivalent - a honky-tonk partnership, Robert's Western World tie-in, or Station Inn (bluegrass venue) collab.
4. Bundle Discount: "Charley + Miranda" or "Charley + Jon"
Offer 15-20% discount for buying 2-night packages that include Charley's night. Use his night to drive overall volume.
PRIORITY 2
Manufacture Viral Moments (2025 Had 3 Major Ones)
2025: TRAILBLAZER @ ACMS
Reba + Miranda + Lainey debut → 2.6M streams
2026 OPPORTUNITY: Miranda is already connected to this song. Can she debut NEW music or a collab AT MCR 2026? Or at ACM/CMA 2026 with MCR branding?
2025: REBA SURPRISE GUESTS
Miranda + Lainey appeared unannounced → social explosion
2026 OPPORTUNITY: Tease surprise guests for Miranda's night. "Who will Miranda bring out?" campaign. Could Tim McGraw appear? Reba return?
2025: JELLY ROLL TIKTOK
"No Nashville until 2027" announcement went viral
2026 OPPORTUNITY: Give artists a "moment" to announce something FROM the MCR stage. Jon Pardi new album? Charley tour announcement? Something TikTok-worthy.
PRIORITY 3
Accelerate Ad Spend NOW (2025's Presale Was Organic)
THE PROBLEM
2025's presale burst (9,080 in 2 days) was driven by organic Jelly Roll demand, not ads. The $1.08M revenue on Mar 5 came with only $1,651 ad spend.
2026 doesn't have that same organic demand engine. Miranda, Charley, and Jon are great artists but don't have Jelly Roll's Nashville-native viral energy. You need to BUY what 2025 got for free.
RECOMMENDED AD ACCELERATION
Current daily spend
~$400/day (maintenance)
2025 Week 1 push
$5,600/day peak
Recommended NOW
$2,000-3,000/day
At 7.6x ROAS (2025 rate), $2,500/day = $133K weekly revenue = ~1,085 tickets/week. That's 3.1x current velocity — enough to approach break-even (25K).
PRIORITY 4
Create Urgency: Flash Sales & Limited Offers
FEB 14
Valentine's Flash Sale
"Date Night at the Rodeo" - Buy 2, get 15% off. 48-hour window.
MAR 1-7
Anniversary Week
1-year since 2025 on-sale. "Founder's Pricing" - early bird rates return for 1 week.
APR 1
60-Day Countdown
Last chance for Family Packs at 25% off. Group sales push.
MAY 1
Final Month Push
"Last 500 tickets per night" scarcity messaging (if true).
2025 Playbook → 2026 Action Items
CONTENT THAT WORKED IN 2025
✓Tim McGraw video liner → 27 purchases, 21.8x ROAS
✓Reba video liner → 22 purchases, 15.2x ROAS
✓"This or That" with McGraw → engagement driver
✓Ed Sheeran callout with McGraw → crossover reach
✓Hot Ones with Ernest + cowboys → viral format
2026 CONTENT NEEDED (NOT YET CREATED)
○Miranda Lambert video liner (highest demand artist)
○Charley Crockett "story" content (10 albums, classic country revival)
○Jon Pardi "party" content (his brand is fun/drinking songs)
○Tim McGraw "co-founder" content (he's still involved)
💰
2026 Marketing Budget vs. Requirements
CRITICAL GAP
Total Budget
$478,200
2026 Marketing
Digital Budget
$90,000
Need $315K+
Current Daily Rate
~$714
Need $2,500/day
Budget Gap
-$225K
Reallocation needed
CURRENT BUDGET ALLOCATION
Digital Advertising
$90,000
Radio/Streaming
$90,000
OOH (Billboards, etc.)
$71,200
Content/Creative
$60,000
NFR
$50,000
Partnerships (TBD)
$35,000
TV
$25,000
Print
$18,000
Kick Off Party (TBD)
$12,000
Email/SMS
$12,000
Contingency
$10,000
Gifting/VIP
$5,000
TOTAL
$478,200
🚨 RECOMMENDED REALLOCATION
Partnerships (TBD) → Digital
+$35,000
TV Other (TBD) → Digital
+$20,000
NFR (evaluate ROI) → Digital
+$30,000
Kick Off Party → Digital
+$12,000
Print (reduce) → Digital
+$10,000
Contingency → Digital
+$10,000
Reallocation Total
+$117,000
New Digital Budget
$207,000
Still short ~$108K to reach optimal $315K. Consider: additional budget request, or accept 2X velocity target ($207K supports ~$1,600/day).
THE CORE PROBLEM
2025 had Jelly Roll's viral Nashville-native momentum driving organic ticket sales. 2026's lineup (Miranda, Charley, Jon) are great artists but don't have that same organic demand engine. You need to BUY what 2025 got for free. The current $90K digital budget assumes similar organic demand—it won't happen.
Quick Wins: Immediate Actions (Next 2 Weeks)
Action
Owner
Expected Impact
Cost
Triple daily Meta ad spend ($400 → $1,200)
Media buyer
+350 tickets/week (at 7.6x ROAS)
$800/day increase
Launch "Charley Crockett Discovery" campaign on Spotify/Americana channels
Media buyer
Reach his actual audience
$500/day
Get Miranda Lambert video liner created + deployed
Content team
Match Tim's 21.8x ROAS performance
Production cost
Activate Tim McGraw for 2026 promotion (he's co-founder)